Drop in oil prices dragged down the Russian economy

2011-12-8   View:1610

 In the international financial crisis the real economy, as well as oil prices continued to fall against the backdrop of, and relying on the "oil dollars" the Russian-led "economic train", showing that the lack of fatigue before.

Benefited from high oil prices in recent years, Russia's economy has maintained rapid growth. Russia is now the highest in the world's proven crude oil reserves in the eighth, the first quarter of this year, Russian crude oil output reached 9.5 million barrels more than Saudi Arabia had become the world's largest oil producer. However, from the beginning of this summer, Russian Urals crude oil prices broke through 140 U.S. dollars a barrel after crossing all the way down, in early December has fallen to 35 U.S. dollars a barrel.

As a result, the Russian oil company profits have fallen significantly. According to Russia's "Kommersant" reported that the exploitation of Russian oil per barrel cost of 10 U.S. dollars, in addition to export taxes, there are about 7 U.S. dollars of freight, and a further 5% of the profit tax. As oil prices continued to decline, the Russian oil company profits of oil exports also declined substantially.

In addition, the drop in oil prices also led to decline in Russia's foreign exchange earnings. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development shows that the Russian exports in October dropped 11.2 percent, Central, Central, than the trade surplus fell 52%. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the world economic slowdown may lead to the international market for Russian exports of oil and gas demand.

At the same time, the fall in oil prices also broke the balance of the Russian government. Russian Academy of Sciences of the national economy Aganbegyan said that the Russian federal budget is still very dependent on export earnings of energy and resources, energy and resource prices will be a corresponding decline in revenue caused by the national treasury.

According to the Russian Government's assessment, when the average price of Urals crude oil fell 70 U.S. dollars a barrel, the need to start a supplementary budget reserve fund income; dropped to 60 U.S. dollars a barrel, the budget deficit; dropped to 50 U.S. dollars a barrel, the budget deficit GDP ratio will exceed 1%; and fell to 40 U.S. dollars a barrel, the international balance of payments deficit. If oil prices in 40 U.S. dollars a barrel to maintain the level of two years, the Russian economy will face recession.

It should be noted that from 2009 to 2011 the Russian federal budget is to establish in the next 3 years, respectively, Ural crude oil price 95 U.S. dollars per barrel, 90 U.S. dollars a barrel and the 80 U.S. dollars a barrel on the basis of. However, Kudrin believes that the next 3 years the price of Urals crude oil may be kept at 50 U.S. dollars a barrel, 55 U.S. dollars per barrel and 60 U.S. dollars a barrel level.

Faced with the grim situation, the Russian government began to actively take measures to deal with. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on November 10 that Russia needs to take comprehensive measures to influence oil prices play a greater role. XIE Qin Russian Deputy Prime Minister on December 17 in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting No. 151 on a special ministerial meeting said that if international oil prices continued to decline, the Russian oil next year's daily average crude oil export volume will be reduced by about 320,000 barrels per day .

In addition, the Russian government is still brewing for the oil fields of the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister December 18 Shuvalov said the government would release a total of 3.5 trillion rubles (about 29 rubles 1 U.S. dollars) of loans to aid the oil industry. He said that due to the fall in oil prices, the Russian oil industry's survival will be "very severe" this government "will not stand idly by."

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